Andrew Nembhard's three-pointers made prop shows exceptional over performance on one day rest, hitting 15-5-0 (75.0%) with a massive +43.2% ROI. His 1.2 average significantly exceeds the 0.7 line, creating a consistent +0.5 edge that suggests strong value on overs.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Andrew Nembhard's three-point production following one day of rest. His 75% over rate across 20 games represents more than just variance—it suggests a systematic advantage tied to his role and rhythm within Indiana's offensive system. The +0.5 differential between his 1.2 average and the typical 0.7 line indicates bookmakers are consistently undervaluing his output in this specific rest scenario. Nembhard's three-point shooting appears to benefit from the optimal recovery window that one day provides. Unlike back-to-back situations where fatigue might affect his shot selection and accuracy, or extended rest periods where rhythm could be disrupted, the single day break seems to hit the sweet spot for his preparation and performance. The 10-game over streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't merely statistical noise but a legitimate edge. The Pacers' pace and Nembhard's expanding role as a secondary playmaker likely contribute to increased three-point opportunities when he's properly rested. However, the small sample size of 20 games demands caution, and any significant role changes or lineup adjustments could disrupt this pattern. The exceptional ROI differential (+43.2% over vs -52.3% under) reinforces the betting value, but regression remains a constant threat with such extreme performance metrics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 75% over rate and +0.5 average differential create legitimate value, but the 20-game sample size prevents full conviction. Target this prop when Nembhard is coming off exactly one day rest, particularly in games where Indiana's pace projects to be above average. The main risk is natural regression to the mean, as no player maintains 75% over rates indefinitely, making selective timing crucial for long-term profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard has gone over his three-pointers made prop 15 times and under just 5 times on one day rest, posting a dominant 75.0% over rate across 20 games with an impressive +43.2% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lean over on Andrew Nembhard's three-pointers made prop when he has one day rest. The 75% over rate and +0.5 average differential create legitimate value, though the sample size requires selective timing rather than blind betting.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard averages 1.2 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to the typical 0.7 line, creating a significant +0.5 differential that consistently provides value for over bettors in this specific rest scenario.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Nembhard's three-pointers made props specifically when he has exactly one day rest, as this scenario produces his highest over rate at 75%. Avoid back-to-back games or extended rest periods where his shooting consistency historically declines.