Andrew Nembhard's steals production has been remarkably consistent but underwhelming, hitting the over just 50% of the time while averaging 0.7 steals against a 0.8 line. The 0.1 differential suggests the market has slightly overvalued his defensive activity, creating a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's steal production reflects his role as a steady point guard focused more on team defense than aggressive gambling for turnovers. The 0.7 average against a 0.8 line reveals a systematic market inefficiency, as oddsmakers appear to be pricing in upside that hasn't materialized consistently. His current two-game under streak aligns with this pattern of conservative defensive play. The 50% over rate with negative ROI on both sides indicates a tightly lined prop where small edges matter significantly. Nembhard's defensive approach prioritizes position and help defense over risky steal attempts, which explains why he's consistently fallen short of market expectations. The lack of dramatic variance in his steal numbers suggests this isn't a streaky stat for him but rather a reflection of his fundamental playing style. With Indiana's pace and his role unlikely to change dramatically, this underwhelming trend appears sustainable rather than due for positive regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent underperformance against the line combined with Nembhard's conservative defensive style creates value on the under. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5 or 1.0 steals, as his 0.7 average provides the clearest edge. The main risk is variance in high-pace games where steal opportunities increase naturally.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Nembhard has gone 5-5 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% while averaging 0.7 steals per game. This perfectly balanced record masks his consistent underperformance against the typical 0.8 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Steals last 10 games?
Lean under on Nembhard's steals props. His 0.7 average consistently falls below market expectations, and his conservative defensive approach suggests this trend will continue. The edge is small but consistent.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Steals last 10 games?
Nembhard averages 0.7 steals over his last 10 games, which is 0.1 below the standard 0.8 line. This differential represents a systematic market overvaluation of his steal production based on his actual performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard's steals unders when the line is set at 0.5 or 1.0, as his 0.7 average provides the clearest mathematical edge. Avoid betting in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate steal opportunities.