Andrew Nembhard's rebounding props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a 3-7-0 record. The 6-foot-3 guard is averaging 2.6 rebounds against a 2.8 line, creating consistent value on the under with a +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Nembhard's rebounding struggles stem from his role as Indiana's primary facilitator, where his positioning prioritizes outlet passes over crashing the glass. The 2.6 average against a 2.8 line reveals books haven't adjusted to his reduced rebounding responsibilities since taking over more ball-handling duties. As a guard in Indiana's pace-heavy system, Nembhard often releases early in transition, leaving rebounding to the frontcourt players like Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam. The 70% under rate isn't fluky—it reflects his actual usage pattern. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates consistency, while the brief two-game over streak appears to be the outlier. The -0.2 differential is significant for a low-volume prop where half-rebounds matter enormously. Indiana's emphasis on pace means fewer offensive rebounds overall, and Nembhard's 6-foot-3 frame limits his effectiveness against bigger opponents. The trend shows persistence rather than regression potential, as his role hasn't changed and the Pacers' system rewards guards who push pace over those who crash boards. This isn't a hot streak—it's a systematic edge.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate reflects Andrew Nembhard's actual role as a facilitator-first guard in Indiana's system rather than random variance. The -0.2 differential against a low number creates consistent value, especially when the line sits at 2.5 or higher. Primary risk is an unusually slow-paced game where extra possessions inflate his opportunities, but his positioning and responsibilities make the under the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Andrew Nembhard's rebounds prop has gone under in 7 of his last 10 games (3-7-0 record, 30% over rate). He's averaging 2.6 rebounds against a typical 2.8 line, creating a -0.2 differential that has generated +33.6% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet the under on Andrew Nembhard's rebounds props. The 70% under rate reflects his role as a facilitator-first guard who prioritizes outlet passes over crashing the glass. The consistent -0.2 differential against the line creates reliable value for under bettors.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Andrew Nembhard is averaging 2.6 rebounds over his last 10 games, which sits 0.2 below the typical 2.8 line. This differential has been consistent across various game situations, making it a reliable indicator rather than temporary variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Nembhard's rebounds under when the line is 2.5 or higher, especially in pace-heavy matchups where his facilitator role is emphasized. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his rebounding opportunities against lesser competition.