Andrew Nembhard's points prop on one day of rest presents a modest edge toward overs, hitting at 54.2% with a +1.1 average differential above the line. The 24-game sample shows consistent value despite minimal ROI, making this a lean over situation in favorable conditions.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's scoring pattern on one day of rest reveals a player who benefits from the balanced recovery time. The 10.92 average against a 9.79 line suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his output in this rest scenario. The 54.2% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the +1.1 differential indicates meaningful scoring upside when books set his number. The modest +3.4% ROI on overs reflects tight lines rather than poor performance, while the -12.5% under ROI suggests books have adjusted but not fully corrected. Nembhard's role as Indiana's secondary playmaker becomes more pronounced with adequate rest, as he handles more offensive responsibility without the fatigue that limits his shot creation. The two-game over streak aligns with his four-game peak, indicating momentum can build. However, the three-game under streak shows he's capable of cold stretches. The lack of split data limits deeper context, but one day of rest appears optimal for Nembhard's scoring rhythm—enough recovery without the rust that longer breaks can create. His 24-game sample provides statistical significance while remaining recent enough to reflect current usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard consistently exceeds his points line on one day of rest, averaging 1.1 points above the number across 24 games. The 54.2% hit rate combined with the positive differential creates sustainable value. Target this spot when his line sits at 9.5 or below, as books haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced scoring in this rest scenario. Main risk is Indiana's blowout potential limiting his minutes in competitive fourth quarters.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 18.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 17.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 14.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard goes over his points prop 54.2% of the time on one day of rest, posting a 13-11 record across 24 games. He averages 10.92 points against a typical 9.79 line in these situations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Points 1 day rest?
Lean over on Nembhard's points prop with one day of rest. He consistently beats his line by 1.1 points on average and hits overs at 54.2%, creating modest but sustainable value for disciplined bettors.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Points 1 day rest?
Nembhard averages 10.92 points on one day of rest compared to his typical 9.79 line, creating a positive 1.1-point differential. This consistent outperformance suggests books undervalue his scoring in this rest scenario.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard's points props when his line is 9.5 or below on one day of rest. Avoid during potential blowout games where fourth-quarter minutes could be limited, reducing his scoring opportunities despite favorable rest conditions.