Andrew Nembhard delivers exceptional assists value on one day of rest, hitting the over in 56.5% of games with a +7.9% ROI. His 4.22 average significantly outpaces the typical 3.89 line, creating consistent profit opportunities. This represents a strong lean over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's assists production flourishes with exactly one day of rest, a pattern that speaks to the delicate balance between freshness and rhythm for a primary facilitator. The 4.22 average against a 3.89 line creates a meaningful 0.33 edge that has translated to profitable betting over 23 games. This isn't random variance—it reflects how Nembhard's court vision and decision-making sharpen when he's neither rusty from extended rest nor fatigued from back-to-back play. The 13-10 over record demonstrates consistency rather than boom-bust volatility, with the longest under streak capping at just four games. What makes this trend particularly valuable is the sportsbooks' apparent failure to adjust lines adequately for this rest pattern. The -17.0% under ROI suggests the market consistently undervalues Nembhard's playmaking in this spot. However, the recent one-game over streak after what was likely a longer under streak indicates some natural regression could be building. The key risk lies in game script—blowouts can limit fourth-quarter assists opportunities, and Nembhard's secondary role means his usage can fluctuate based on Tyrese Haliburton's availability and performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard's 56.5% over rate and +0.33 average differential create a sustainable edge on one day rest. The 13-10 record shows consistency without extreme variance, making this a reliable spot to target. Primary risk involves potential regression after strong recent form and game script concerns in blowout scenarios that could limit late-game opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard's assists prop record on one day rest stands at 13-10 over, hitting 56.5% of the time across 23 games. This translates to a profitable +7.9% ROI when betting the over in this specific rest situation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Assists 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Andrew Nembhard's assists with one day rest. His 4.22 average significantly exceeds the typical 3.89 line, and the 56.5% hit rate with positive ROI makes this a profitable long-term play.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Assists 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard averages 4.22 assists on one day rest compared to the typical line of 3.89. This +0.33 differential represents meaningful value, as he consistently exceeds market expectations in this rest scenario across 23 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Nembhard assists props specifically on one day rest when lines sit around 3.89 or lower. Avoid back-to-back situations or extended rest periods, as the sweet spot appears to be exactly 24 hours between games.