Andrew Nembhard's assists prop shows a strong 57.1% over rate (20-15-0) with consistent value above market expectations. His 4.26 average significantly outpaces the 3.93 line, creating a +0.3 differential that translates to profitable +9.1% ROI on overs. This represents a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Nembhard has established himself as Indiana's primary facilitator, consistently exceeding modest market expectations for his assist production. The 4.26 average against a 3.93 line reveals books are still undervaluing his playmaking role in the Pacers' offense. This 0.33 assist differential might seem small, but it's substantial enough to generate a 9.1% return on investment over 35 games. The 57.1% over rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic market inefficiency. Nembhard's assist production benefits from Indiana's pace and ball movement system, where his court vision and decision-making create more opportunities than the betting market anticipates. The fact that his longest over streak reached five games while under streaks maxed at three indicates the overs have more staying power. However, the -18.2% ROI on unders shows how punishing betting against this trend has been. The key concern is whether books will eventually adjust lines higher, but for now, the market continues to underestimate Nembhard's consistent facilitation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard's 4.26 average consistently beating the 3.93 line creates a sustainable edge that books haven't corrected. The 57.1% over rate across 35 games shows this isn't a hot streak but a pattern. Best value comes when lines stay at 3.5 or 4.0, where his consistent playmaking role gives overs the mathematical advantage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Assists prop record all games?
Andrew Nembhard's assists prop record in all games stands at 20-15-0, hitting overs 57.1% of the time across 35 games. This strong over rate has generated a profitable +9.1% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Assists all games?
Bet over on Andrew Nembhard's assists props. His 4.26 average consistently beats the 3.93 line, creating a 57.1% over rate with positive ROI. The market continues undervaluing his playmaking role in Indiana's system.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Assists all games?
Andrew Nembhard averages 4.26 assists per game in all situations, which runs 0.33 assists above the typical 3.93 line. This differential represents significant value, as even small edges in assist props translate to profitable betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Andrew Nembhard's assists overs is when lines remain at 3.5 or 4.0, maximizing the value from his 4.26 average. His consistent facilitation role makes these props most profitable in standard game situations.