Amen Thompson shows modest over tendencies on steals props with one day rest, going 7-6-0 over 1.5 steals (53.8% over rate) while averaging 1.62 steals. The small sample size and marginal edge suggest a lean over approach rather than aggressive betting.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's steals production with one day rest reveals a player who slightly exceeds expectations but without overwhelming consistency. His 1.62 average against the standard 1.5 line creates a meaningful 0.12 differential, though the 53.8% over rate indicates this edge isn't automatic. The defensive versatility that makes Thompson valuable also creates steal opportunities through his ability to guard multiple positions and disrupt passing lanes. However, the limited 13-game sample from February through April 2024 raises concerns about drawing definitive conclusions. Young players like Thompson often show inconsistent defensive intensity, particularly in steal generation which requires anticipation and risk-taking. The current two-game over streak suggests recent form alignment, but his history includes a four-game under streak, highlighting the volatility inherent in steal props. The modest +2.8% ROI on overs indicates this trend provides value without being a goldmine, while the -11.9% under ROI suggests consistent under betting has been costly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 1.62 average meaningfully exceeds the 1.5 line, and his defensive activity creates legitimate steal opportunities. The current two-game over streak aligns with his slight historical edge. However, the small sample size and inherent volatility of steal props prevent stronger conviction. Target games where Houston faces faster-paced opponents or teams prone to turnovers to maximize Thompson's steal potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Thompson's steals prop record with one day rest stands at 7-6-0 over/under, hitting the over 53.8% of the time across 13 games from February through April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Steals 1 day rest?
Lean over on Thompson's steals props with one day rest. His 1.62 average exceeds the typical 1.5 line, though the modest edge warrants measured betting rather than aggressive pursuit.
What's Amen Thompson's average Steals 1 day rest?
Thompson averages 1.62 steals with one day rest compared to the standard 1.5 line, creating a positive 0.12 differential that provides legitimate over value in this specific situation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's steals props when Houston faces high-turnover teams or plays at faster pace. His defensive versatility creates more steal opportunities against mistake-prone opponents in uptempo games.