Amen Thompson's points prop shows a modest 53.3% over rate across 15 games with an 8-7-0 record, averaging 13.6 points against a 13.23 line. The minimal +0.4 differential and poor under ROI (-10.9%) suggest marginal value leaning toward overs in this developing sample.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's points production reflects a young player finding his NBA footing, with the 53.3% over rate indicating slight market inefficiency rather than dominant edge. The +0.4 average differential above the line suggests oddsmakers are pricing him conservatively, likely accounting for rookie inconsistency and limited role certainty. What's particularly telling is the -10.9% under ROI compared to just +1.8% over ROI, indicating unders have been punishing bets despite the relatively balanced record. The current two-game over streak follows his longest under streak of four games, highlighting the volatility inherent in betting a developing player's props. Thompson's role in Houston's system appears to be stabilizing, but with equal four-game streaks in both directions, bettors face significant variance. The sample size of 15 games from February through April represents a crucial developmental period where his minutes and usage were likely fluctuating as the Rockets evaluated their young core. Without split data showing performance differences by opponent, rest, or game situation, the overall trend suggests Thompson is slightly outperforming conservative market expectations, but not by enough to create a strong systematic edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The combination of Thompson averaging above his line (+0.4) and the terrible under ROI (-10.9%) suggests the market is pricing him too conservatively. However, the minimal edge and high variance make this a low-conviction play. Best approached when the line appears particularly low or in favorable game scripts where Houston projects to score well.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 15.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 11.5 | 19.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Points prop record all games?
Thompson's points prop record stands at 8-7-0 over/under across 15 games, translating to a 53.3% over rate. While slightly favoring overs, this represents a modest edge rather than a dominant trend in the limited sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Points all games?
Lean toward betting Thompson's points overs, but with caution. His +0.4 average differential above the line and the poor -10.9% under ROI suggest the market prices him conservatively, creating slight value on overs in favorable spots.
What's Amen Thompson's average Points all games?
Thompson averages 13.6 points per game across the 15-game sample, which sits 0.4 points above his typical line of 13.23. This modest outperformance indicates he's been slightly better than market expectations, though the edge is minimal.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's points overs when his line appears particularly low or Houston projects for high-scoring games. Avoid during back-to-backs or against elite defenses where his developing role might be most restricted by game flow.