Amen Thompson has hit the assists over in 7 of his last 10 games, generating a 70% hit rate with a +33.6% ROI. The rookie guard is averaging 3.4 assists against a typical 2.8 line, creating a consistent +0.6 edge that suggests lean over value.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's 70% over rate on assists props reflects his evolving role in Houston's rotation during the season's final stretch. The rookie's 3.4 assist average significantly outpacing the typical 2.8 line indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his increased playmaking responsibilities. This +0.6 differential is particularly noteworthy for a first-year player still finding his NBA rhythm. The three-game over streak suggests momentum, though the limited sample size demands caution. Thompson's assist production likely benefited from increased opportunities as Houston evaluated young talent down the stretch. The 6'7" guard's unique size allows him to facilitate from multiple positions, creating natural assist opportunities that traditional point guards might not access. However, the timing of this sample—late March through early April—coincides with potential rest days for veterans and experimental lineups that may have artificially inflated Thompson's usage. The lack of detailed split data makes it difficult to identify specific game conditions driving this trend. While the ROI numbers are compelling, regression toward his season-long averages remains a significant risk as roles stabilize.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 3.4 assist average creating a +0.6 edge over typical lines suggests genuine value, particularly given his versatile skill set and late-season opportunity increase. The 70% hit rate with strong ROI supports continued over betting in favorable spots. Primary risk is sample size limitations and potential role regression as Houston's rotation normalizes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Thompson has gone over his assists prop in 7 of his last 10 games for a 70% success rate. He's averaging 3.4 assists against typical 2.8 lines, with overs generating a +33.6% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Thompson's assists props. His 3.4 average significantly exceeds typical lines, creating consistent value. However, use medium confidence due to limited sample size and potential role regression as Houston's rotation stabilizes.
What's Amen Thompson's average Assists last 10 games?
Thompson is averaging 3.4 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.6 assists above the typical 2.8 prop line. This differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his increased playmaking role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's assists overs when he's in expanded roles or experimental lineups. Late-season evaluation periods and games with veteran rest create optimal conditions for his increased usage and assist opportunities.