Amen Thompson's assists prop shows a clear edge toward overs, hitting at a 60% rate (9-6-0) across 15 games with a healthy +14.6% ROI. The young guard averages 3.27 assists against a 3.17 line, creating a consistent 0.1 edge that translates to profitable betting opportunities.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's assist production reflects his evolving role as a playmaker in Houston's system, where his 6'7" frame and court vision create natural advantages in finding teammates. The 60% over rate isn't coincidental—it stems from his ability to generate assists through transition opportunities and his improving half-court reads as a secondary ball-handler. His assist numbers benefit from playing alongside shooters who convert his passes at a decent clip, and his usage in lineups that emphasize ball movement rather than isolation plays. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests the market consistently undervalues his playmaking impact, likely due to his reputation as more of an athletic wing than a true facilitator. However, the -23.6% ROI on unders indicates that when Thompson falls short, it's often by significant margins, suggesting his assist production can be volatile game-to-game. The current three-game over streak aligns with his season-long trend of exceeding modest expectations, though regression risk exists if his role changes or if Houston's offensive system shifts away from his strengths.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's consistent ability to exceed the 3.17 assist line, combined with his expanding role and the market's apparent undervaluation, creates a sustainable edge. The ideal conditions involve games where Houston plays at pace and Thompson sees extended minutes as a secondary playmaker. The main risk is lineup changes that reduce his ball-handling responsibilities or games where his shot creation takes precedence over distribution.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Assists prop record all games?
Thompson's assists prop record stands at 9-6-0 over/under across 15 games, hitting overs at a 60% rate. This translates to a +14.6% ROI on over bets, while under bets have produced a -23.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Assists all games?
Lean toward betting over on Thompson's assists props. His 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate consistent value, especially given his expanding playmaking role and the market's apparent undervaluation of his distribution skills.
What's Amen Thompson's average Assists all games?
Thompson averages 3.27 assists per game against a typical line of 3.17, creating a +0.1 differential in favor of overs. This small but consistent edge has translated into profitable betting opportunities throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's assists overs when Houston plays at faster pace or when he's featured in ball-handling lineups. Avoid games where his role shifts toward pure scoring or when facing elite defensive teams that limit transition opportunities.