Alperen Sengun's three-pointers made prop shows a clear under bias, hitting just 42.9% overs across 49 games with a brutal -18.2% ROI on over bets. The Turkish center averages exactly 0.51 makes against a 0.5 line, creating minimal edge but consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Alperen Sengun's three-point prop reveals the market's struggle to price a modern center's evolving role. At 0.51 makes per game against the standard 0.5 line, the numbers appear tight, but the 21-28 under record tells a deeper story about consistency versus opportunity. Sengun's three-point attempts fluctuate wildly based on game flow and Houston's offensive needs, creating a boom-or-bust pattern that favors the under. The Rockets often rely on Sengun's playmaking and interior presence rather than perimeter shooting, especially in competitive games where his defensive rebounding becomes crucial. His current three-game under streak reflects this reality – when Houston needs wins, they utilize Sengun's strengths inside rather than experimenting with outside shots. The -18.2% ROI on overs suggests the market consistently overvalues his three-point volume, likely influenced by his improved shooting mechanics rather than actual game-to-game usage patterns. Books appear slow to adjust to how Houston actually deploys their versatile big man, creating sustainable under value throughout the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.1% under rate combined with positive ROI creates legitimate value, though the tight 0.51 average keeps this from being a slam dunk. Target games where Houston faces elite interior defenses that might force Sengun outside, but avoid back-to-backs where his minutes and shot attempts could spike unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alperen Sengun's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Alperen Sengun's three-pointers made prop has gone under in 28 of 49 games (57.1%) this season, producing a solid +9.1% ROI for under bettors while over bets have lost -18.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alperen Sengun 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Alperen Sengun's three-pointers made props. The 57.1% under rate with positive ROI shows consistent value, especially given Houston's tendency to utilize Sengun's interior skills over perimeter shooting.
What's Alperen Sengun's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Alperen Sengun averages 0.51 three-pointers made per game, just barely above the standard 0.5 line. This minimal 0.01 differential creates tight margins but has consistently favored under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sengun's three-point unders when Houston plays competitive games against strong interior defenses. Avoid back-to-back situations where increased minutes might inflate his shot attempts and three-point opportunities.