Alperen Sengun's assist props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.0% overs across 25 games with a -16.0% ROI on overs versus +6.9% on unders. The Turkish center averages 5.16 assists at home against typical lines around 4.74, but this modest 0.4 edge hasn't translated to consistent over results. The data strongly favors under betting.
Expert Analysis
Sengun's home assist struggles reveal the classic trap of betting on raw averages without considering line efficiency. While his 5.16 home average suggests decent playmaking, the 44% over rate indicates books are pricing his props accurately, if not slightly high. The -16.0% ROI on overs is particularly damaging for bettors who've chased his passing upside. His role as Houston's primary offensive hub creates natural assist opportunities, but the Rockets' pace and offensive efficiency at home may not consistently generate the extra possessions needed to clear inflated lines. The 0.4 differential between his average and typical lines seems modest, but when combined with the natural variance in assist totals, it creates a meaningful edge for under betting. Books likely account for his reputation as a skilled passing big man, potentially overvaluing his consistency. The lack of extended over streaks (longest just 3 games) suggests his assist production lacks the reliability needed for profitable over betting. Houston's home environment may actually work against assist accumulation if they build leads and reduce his playmaking responsibilities in fourth quarters.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.9% ROI on unders combined with the 56% under rate creates a sustainable edge, though not overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target unders when lines sit at 5.0 or higher, particularly in games where Houston projects as favorites and could reduce Sengun's fourth-quarter involvement. The main risk is regression toward his 5.16 average, but the consistent under performance suggests this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 14.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alperen Sengun's Assists prop record home games?
Sengun's assist props at home show an 11-14 over/under record (44.0% overs) across 25 games. This translates to a -16.0% ROI on overs and a profitable +6.9% ROI on unders, making home unders the clear profitable side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alperen Sengun Assists home games?
Bet under on Sengun's assist props at home. The 56% under rate with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, especially when lines reach 5.0 or higher. His home assist average doesn't translate to consistent over results.
What's Alperen Sengun's average Assists home games?
Sengun averages 5.16 assists in home games compared to typical lines around 4.74, creating a modest +0.4 differential. However, this small edge hasn't prevented a poor 44% over rate, suggesting books price his props efficiently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sengun assist unders when Houston plays at home with lines at 5.0 or higher, particularly when the Rockets are favored. Avoid betting his assists in close games where he'll maintain full playmaking responsibilities throughout.