Alex Caruso's three-point shooting has been remarkably consistent yet unprofitable for over bettors, hitting exactly his 1.7 line average while going under in 80% of games over the last 10 contests. The current four-game under streak and brutal -61.8% ROI on overs signals a clear directional edge toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Caruso's three-point production reveals a fascinating case study in market inefficiency. Despite averaging exactly 1.7 makes against a 1.7 line, the distribution heavily favors unders due to his boom-or-bust shooting profile. The Thunder guard's role as a defensive specialist limits his offensive usage, creating natural constraints on his three-point volume that the market consistently undervalues. His 20% over rate suggests books are pricing in occasional hot shooting nights that simply aren't materializing with sufficient frequency. The four-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects Caruso's realistic ceiling in Oklahoma City's system where he ranks behind multiple primary options for three-point attempts. His shooting opportunities come primarily from drive-and-kick situations and transition, making him dependent on teammate creation rather than generating his own looks. This creates inherent volatility that trends toward the lower end of his range. The -61.8% ROI on overs represents significant market mispricing, likely driven by casual bettors overvaluing his reputation as a capable shooter without considering his limited role and inconsistent volume.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and devastating -61.8% ROI on overs creates a clear edge, while the four-game streak suggests the trend has staying power. Target games where Caruso faces strong perimeter defenses or when the Thunder are expected to win comfortably, reducing his minutes and shooting urgency. Main risk is a random hot shooting night breaking the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alex Caruso's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Caruso has gone 2-8-0 on his three-pointers made over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He's averaging exactly 1.7 makes against a typical 1.7 line, showing remarkable consistency at his number.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alex Caruso 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Caruso's three-pointers made props. The 80% under rate and -61.8% ROI on overs creates a significant edge, especially with his current four-game under streak showing no signs of breaking.
What's Alex Caruso's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Caruso is averaging exactly 1.7 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which matches his typical betting line perfectly. Despite hitting his average, the distribution heavily favors under results due to his inconsistent shooting volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Caruso three-point unders when the Thunder face strong perimeter defenses or in games where Oklahoma City is heavily favored. His limited offensive role and reduced minutes in blowouts create ideal conditions for under bets.