Alex Caruso's assists prop has been a consistent under play over his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs with a 4-6-0 record. Despite averaging 3.9 assists against a 3.5 line, the under has generated positive 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. This points to a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Caruso's assist numbers reveal a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 3.9 average exceeds the typical 3.5 line by 0.4 assists, the market appears to be overvaluing his playmaking in certain spots. The 40% over rate suggests books are pricing in his ceiling games too heavily, creating systematic under value. Oklahoma City's pace and offensive hierarchy likely play crucial roles here. When the Thunder control games or face slower-paced opponents, Caruso's assist opportunities naturally decrease as the offense flows through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The current one-game under streak isn't statistically significant, but it aligns with the broader pattern. The key insight is that Caruso's role fluctuates based on game script more than casual bettors realize. In blowouts or defensive struggles, his assist production suffers as Oklahoma City relies more heavily on their primary creators. The negative ROI on overs despite the favorable average suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to these contextual factors, particularly in matchups where the Thunder's pace slows or they face elite defenses that limit secondary playmaking.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with the 60% hit rate creates a sustainable edge despite Caruso averaging above the line. The key is identifying spots where Oklahoma City's pace slows or game script limits his playmaking opportunities. Target unders when the Thunder face elite defenses or in potential blowout scenarios where primary creators dominate touches. The main risk is a pace-up game where Caruso sees expanded facilitating duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alex Caruso's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Caruso has gone 4-6-0 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% while averaging 3.9 assists. The under has been the profitable side with a 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alex Caruso Assists last 10 games?
Bet under on Caruso's assists props. The 60% under hit rate with positive ROI creates value despite his solid 3.9 average. Focus on games where Oklahoma City's pace slows or against elite defenses.
What's Alex Caruso's average Assists last 10 games?
Caruso is averaging 3.9 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.4 above the typical 3.5 line. However, this favorable average hasn't translated to over success, hitting just 40% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Caruso assists unders when Oklahoma City faces elite defenses or in potential blowout scenarios. His playmaking opportunities decrease when the Thunder's pace slows or primary creators dominate ball-handling duties in controlled games.