Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers made prop with 1 day rest presents a clear under opportunity, going under in 60.7% of games with a +15.9% ROI. His 1.86 average perfectly matches typical lines, but the consistency of under results across 28 games suggests sustainable value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling pattern in Aaron Nesmith's three-point shooting with 1 day rest that defies the typical randomness of shooting props. Over 28 games spanning more than a year, Nesmith has hit the under 60.7% of the time while generating a healthy +15.9% ROI for under bettors. The fact that his 1.86 average exactly matches standard lines indicates books haven't adjusted to this trend, creating sustained value. What makes this particularly interesting is the persistence across such a large sample size. Most shooting props regress quickly, but Nesmith's under tendency with 1 day rest has remained consistent through different stretches of the season. This suggests the pattern stems from something more fundamental than variance. The 1 day rest scenario likely impacts Nesmith's rhythm and shot selection in ways that aren't immediately obvious but consistently affect his three-point output. His recent streak of 2 overs doesn't negate the broader trend, especially considering he's had longer under streaks of up to 8 games. The -25.0% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about betting the wrong side of this prop. While Nesmith can certainly have explosive shooting nights, the data strongly suggests that with 1 day rest, he more often falls short of his typical three-point production, making the under the mathematically superior play.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60.7% under rate combined with +15.9% ROI over 28 games creates clear value, especially when his average matches the typical line exactly. Target this prop when Nesmith is coming off exactly 1 day rest, particularly in games where Indiana might emphasize ball movement over individual shooting. The main risk is his recent 2-game over streak, but the broader sample strongly favors continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers made prop with 1 day rest shows an 11-17 record, meaning the under hits 60.7% of the time across 28 games. This translates to a -25.0% ROI on overs versus a profitable +15.9% ROI on unders, indicating clear value on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers made with 1 day rest. The 60.7% under rate and +15.9% ROI over 28 games creates sustained value, especially since his 1.86 average matches typical lines exactly, suggesting books haven't adjusted to this profitable trend.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Aaron Nesmith averages exactly 1.86 three-pointers made with 1 day rest, creating a perfect match with typical betting lines. This zero differential means books are pricing him at his exact average, yet the under still hits 60.7% of the time, creating clear value.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Aaron Nesmith three-pointers props is specifically when he has exactly 1 day rest, where the under hits 60.7% with +15.9% ROI. Target games where Indiana emphasizes team play over individual scoring, as this scenario consistently reduces his three-point output.