Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers made prop has hit exactly 50% over the last 10 games with a 5-5 record, averaging precisely 1.7 makes against a 1.7 line. The perfect equilibrium and negative ROI on both sides suggest this is an efficient market with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
Nesmith's three-point production over this 10-game sample represents a textbook case of market efficiency. His 1.7 average perfectly aligns with the 1.7 line, creating zero differential and eliminating any mathematical advantage. The 50% over rate confirms the sportsbooks have accurately priced his output, while the negative ROI on both sides reflects the vig eating into any potential profits. The current two-game over streak follows a three-game under streak, highlighting the alternating nature of his production around this baseline. Without additional context like matchup data, usage trends, or injury reports, this prop appears to be a coin flip with built-in house edge. The lack of meaningful deviation from the line suggests Nesmith's role and shot attempts have remained consistent, with his makes fluctuating naturally around his true talent level. This stability actually works against bettors, as there's no clear pattern to exploit or regression angle to target.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfect alignment between Nesmith's 1.7 average and the 1.7 line, combined with the exact 50% over rate, indicates an efficiently priced market with no edge. The negative ROI on both sides confirms the vig is working against bettors. Without additional context or a clear directional catalyst, this prop offers no value and should be avoided until market conditions or player circumstances change.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Nesmith has gone 5-5 on his three-pointers made prop over the last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% overs. He's averaging 1.7 makes against a 1.7 line, creating perfect equilibrium with zero differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Pass on this prop entirely. The perfect 50% over rate and exact match between his 1.7 average and 1.7 line creates no edge, while negative ROI on both sides shows the vig working against you.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Nesmith is averaging exactly 1.7 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which perfectly matches the typical 1.7 line. This zero differential indicates an efficiently priced market with no mathematical advantage.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Nesmith's three-point props until additional context emerges. Look for matchup advantages against poor perimeter defenses, increased usage due to injuries, or line movement that creates value away from the current equilibrium.