Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers made props present a strong under opportunity with just 42.1% overs across 38 games. His 1.84 average barely trails the 1.87 line, but the under delivers +10.5% ROI while overs hemorrhage -19.6%. The numbers favor consistent under betting.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Nesmith's three-point shooting profile reveals a player whose prop lines consistently overestimate his output. The 16-22 over/under record tells only part of the story—the real edge lies in the betting returns. While Nesmith averages 1.84 made threes against a 1.87 line, that modest 0.03 differential masks significant volatility that favors under bettors. The -19.6% ROI on overs indicates books are pricing in optimistic shooting nights that rarely materialize. Nesmith's role as Indiana's fourth or fifth offensive option limits his three-point volume, especially in competitive games where the Pacers lean on their primary scorers. His 42.1% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his actual usage patterns within Indiana's system. The current two-game over streak shouldn't deter under bettors—his longest over streak reached just six games, while under streaks of five games demonstrate the consistency of his limited three-point production. Without significant injury news affecting Indiana's rotation or pace-up matchups dramatically increasing possessions, Nesmith's three-point props remain structurally overvalued. The combination of modest volume, inconsistent shooting efficiency, and secondary role creates a sustainable edge for under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +10.5% ROI on unders combined with a 58% hit rate creates a profitable long-term edge. Nesmith's secondary role in Indiana's offense limits his three-point attempts, making the 1.87 line consistently generous. Main risk is pace-up games or blowouts where garbage time increases his volume, but his 42.1% over rate suggests these scenarios are already priced in.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Aaron Nesmith props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Aaron Nesmith has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 16 of 38 games (42.1%) while going under 22 times. His average of 1.84 made threes slightly trails the typical 1.87 line, creating a modest but consistent gap.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers made props. The under delivers +10.5% ROI with a 58% hit rate, while overs lose -19.6%. His secondary role limits volume, making lines consistently generous.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Aaron Nesmith averages 1.84 three-pointers made across all games, compared to a typical line of 1.87. This 0.03 differential may seem small, but it creates consistent value for under bettors over larger samples.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Nesmith three-point unders in competitive games where Indiana relies on primary scorers. Avoid pace-down matchups or potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his attempts, though his low over rate suggests these are rare.