Aaron Nesmith's steals prop has hit over just 41.9% of the time across 31 games, with the under delivering a solid 10.8% ROI while overs hemorrhage nearly 20%. His 0.81 average barely exceeds typical 0.73 lines, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Nesmith's steal production reflects his role as a complementary wing player rather than a primary defensive disruptor. At 0.81 steals per game, he's operating just above replacement level for his position, but books consistently set lines that overestimate his defensive impact. The 58.1% under rate isn't coincidental – it stems from Nesmith's focus on team defense and help concepts rather than aggressive ball-hawking. His defensive responsibilities center on switching and help defense, limiting opportunities for the gambling that generates steals. The Pacers' fast-paced system theoretically creates more possessions and steal chances, but Nesmith's role keeps him away from primary ball-handlers where steals occur most frequently. The -19.9% ROI on overs signals the market consistently overvalues his defensive playmaking, likely influenced by his athletic profile and occasional spike games. With no significant splits showing favorable conditions and a recent longest under streak of five games, the data suggests his steal production is both limited by role and consistently overpriced. The 0.1 differential between his average and typical lines creates a narrow but exploitable edge for under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.1% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the narrow 0.1 differential limits upside. Target this when lines sit at 0.5 or 1.5 steals, as Nesmith's role-limited opportunities make spike games uncommon. Primary risk is variance in small samples, but the consistent underperformance suggests systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's Steals prop record all games?
Aaron Nesmith's steals prop record shows 13 overs and 18 unders across 31 games, hitting over just 41.9% of the time. The under side has generated a positive 10.8% ROI while overs have lost nearly 20% of invested capital.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith Steals all games?
Bet under on Aaron Nesmith's steals props. The 58.1% under rate with positive ROI indicates consistent market overvaluation. His role-limited steal opportunities make the under a sustainable long-term play, especially at 0.5 or 1.5 lines.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average Steals all games?
Aaron Nesmith averages 0.81 steals per game, which sits 0.1 above typical book lines of 0.73. While this seems favorable for overs, his actual over rate of just 41.9% shows the average is inflated by occasional spike performances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Nesmith steals unders when lines are set at 0.5 or 1.5, as these create the clearest value based on his role limitations. Avoid after extended under streaks of 4+ games when potential regression might temporarily favor overs.