Aaron Nesmith's points props show clear under value with just 43.6% overs across 39 games, generating a solid 7.7% ROI on unders. His 12.46 average sits 0.25 points below typical lines, creating consistent downside edge. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Nesmith's points production reveals a player whose role has been systematically overvalued by oddsmakers throughout the season. His 17-22 over/under record translates to hitting the over just 43.6% of the time, well below the 52.4% breakeven threshold needed to overcome juice. The 0.25-point gap between his 12.46 season average and typical 12.71 lines might seem minimal, but it's substantial in NBA props where margins are razor-thin. This differential suggests Nesmith operates as a complementary scorer whose output is capped by Indiana's offensive hierarchy. The Pacers' uptempo style creates scoring opportunities, but Nesmith's role as a floor-spacer and defensive specialist limits his shot attempts. His 7.7% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a systematic pricing inefficiency. The lack of dramatic streaks (longest over streak of 5, under streak of 4) indicates consistent performance within his defined role rather than volatile boom-or-bust games. Oddsmakers appear to be pricing in his shooting ability without fully accounting for his limited touches in Indiana's ball-movement offense, where primary scorers like Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam command higher usage rates.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nesmith's 43.6% over rate and negative 0.25-point differential create sustainable under value in a complementary role that limits ceiling games. The 7.7% ROI on unders reflects systematic overvaluation rather than short-term variance. Target this when lines sit at 12.5 or higher, especially in games where Indiana's primary scorers are healthy and likely to dominate touches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 17.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's Points prop record all games?
Aaron Nesmith's points prop record shows 17 overs and 22 unders across 39 games, hitting the over just 43.6% of the time. This translates to a -16.8% ROI on overs but a profitable 7.7% return on under bets throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith Points all games?
Bet under on Aaron Nesmith's points props. His 43.6% over rate and 7.7% ROI on unders create clear value, especially when lines are set at 12.5 or higher. His complementary role consistently limits scoring ceiling despite shooting talent.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average Points all games?
Aaron Nesmith averages 12.46 points per game compared to typical lines around 12.71. This 0.25-point differential below the betting line creates systematic under value, as he consistently falls short of oddsmakers' expectations by a meaningful margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Nesmith under bets when lines are 12.5 or higher and Indiana's primary scorers are healthy. His complementary role becomes most pronounced in games where Haliburton and Siakam command higher usage, limiting Nesmith's scoring opportunities despite uptempo pace.