Aaron Nesmith's blocks production has cratered over his last 10 games, posting just a 30% over rate while averaging 0.3 blocks against a 0.5 line. The Pacers forward is currently riding a six-game under streak, making the under side the clear value play.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Nesmith's defensive impact has virtually disappeared during this 10-game stretch, with his 0.3 blocks per game sitting 40% below the standard 0.5 line. This isn't just a minor cold streak—it represents a fundamental shift in how Nesmith is being utilized defensively. As a 6'5" wing, Nesmith lacks the size to consistently challenge shots at the rim, and his role has seemingly evolved away from help defense toward perimeter containment. The Pacers' uptempo pace theoretically creates more blocking opportunities, but Nesmith's positioning and defensive assignments haven't translated into meaningful shot-blocking production. His six-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the logical extension of a player whose defensive value comes from switching and perimeter pressure rather than rim protection. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the complete story: books have been slow to adjust this line downward, creating consistent value on the under. With no meaningful splits showing favorable conditions for blocks production, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. Nesmith's role as a floor-spacer and secondary defender limits his opportunities for help-side blocks, making the under side a high-probability bet until the line adjusts to reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Aaron Nesmith's blocks production has completely dried up, averaging just 0.3 per game against a 0.5 line that hasn't properly adjusted to his diminished defensive role. The six-game under streak and 70% under rate reflect a player whose value comes from perimeter defense, not shot-blocking. Until books drop this line to 0.5 or lower, the under remains the premium play with minimal risk of regression.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Nesmith has gone under his blocks prop in 7 of his last 10 games (30% over rate), averaging just 0.3 blocks per game. His longest under streak during this span reached six consecutive games, showing remarkable consistency hitting the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Aaron Nesmith blocks props. He's averaging 0.3 blocks against a 0.5 line with a 70% under rate over 10 games. The trend is driven by role changes, not variance, making regression unlikely.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average Blocks last 10 games?
Aaron Nesmith is averaging 0.3 blocks per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.2 blocks below the typical 0.5 betting line. This 40% deficit represents a significant gap that books haven't properly addressed through line movement.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Nesmith blocks unders when the line remains at 0.5 or higher, particularly in uptempo games where his perimeter defensive role is emphasized. Avoid when he faces smaller lineups that might require more help defense.