Aaron Nesmith's blocks prop presents a clear under opportunity with just 48.4% overs across 31 games. His 0.65 average barely exceeds the 0.5 line, while a brutal 6-game under streak signals defensive role regression. The under offers superior -1.5% ROI versus -7.6% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Nesmith's blocks production reveals the classic trap of a small sample hot streak inflating season averages. While his 0.65 average sits 0.15 blocks above the standard 0.5 line, this marginal edge masks significant volatility in his defensive impact role. As a 6'6" wing playing 28 minutes per game, Nesmith lacks the positional advantage and rim protection responsibilities that generate consistent block production. His current 6-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects his true defensive role settling into Indiana's system. The Pacers utilize Nesmith primarily as a perimeter defender and floor spacer, not a help defender generating blocks. His -7.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how the market has been slow to adjust to this reality. The 48.4% over rate across 31 games provides substantial evidence that this line consistently overvalues his block potential. Guards and wings hitting blocks props require either exceptional length, aggressive gambling for steals that turn into blocks, or specific matchup advantages—none of which consistently apply to Nesmith's situation. His role prioritizes staying disciplined defensively rather than hunting for highlight-reel rejections that could compromise team defense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6-game under streak and poor -7.6% over ROI reflect Nesmith's limited defensive impact role rather than temporary variance. Target this prop when Indiana faces teams with limited interior scoring threats, forcing Nesmith to defend primarily on the perimeter where blocks are scarce. Main risk is garbage-time hustle plays or random help defense opportunities inflating his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's Blocks prop record all games?
Aaron Nesmith's blocks prop record shows 15 overs and 16 unders across 31 games, hitting just 48.4% overs. His -7.6% ROI on overs versus -1.5% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency favoring the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith Blocks all games?
Bet under on Aaron Nesmith's blocks props. His 6-game under streak and poor over ROI reflect his limited shot-blocking role as a perimeter-focused wing defender, making the under the superior long-term value play.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average Blocks all games?
Aaron Nesmith averages 0.65 blocks per game, just 0.15 above the typical 0.5 betting line. This minimal cushion combined with his 48.4% over rate suggests the line accurately reflects his limited block production ceiling.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Nesmith blocks unders when Indiana faces perimeter-heavy offenses that keep him away from rim protection duties. Avoid when the Pacers play small-ball lineups that might increase his help defense responsibilities near the basket.