Aaron Gordon's three-point production craters on one day of rest, hitting the over just 28.6% of the time across 35 games. His 0.4 average falls well short of typical 0.53 lines, creating a massive -45.5% ROI for overs. The under presents strong value in this specific rest scenario.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's three-point struggles on one day of rest represent a clear physiological and role-based pattern that bettors can exploit. The forward's 0.4 average on back-to-back situations sits 0.13 makes below standard lines, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to this rest-dependent decline. Gordon's role as Denver's versatile defender and rebounder becomes more pronounced in compressed schedules, where coach Michael Malone prioritizes his paint presence over perimeter shooting. The 28.6% over rate across 35 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the current eight-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but systematic role compression. Gordon's three-point attempts likely decrease on shorter rest as Denver's pace slows and his energy gets allocated to defensive assignments and crashing boards. The Nuggets' championship-caliber depth means Gordon can focus on his strengths rather than expanding his offensive role when legs are heavy. Books consistently set his line around 0.5 makes regardless of rest, creating a persistent edge for under bettors who recognize how fatigue affects his shot selection and accuracy from beyond the arc.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gordon's 0.4 average on one day rest consistently falls short of 0.5+ lines, creating exploitable value. The 71.4% under rate across 35 games isn't fluky—it reflects his reduced three-point role when Denver prioritizes his interior contributions on compressed rest. Risk comes from potential blowout game scripts forcing increased attempts, but his energy allocation patterns strongly favor the under in this specific rest scenario.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon goes 10-25-0 over/under on three-pointers made props with one day rest, hitting just 28.6% of overs across 35 games from October 2023 through April 2024, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Aaron Gordon's three-pointers made with one day rest. His 0.4 average consistently falls short of 0.5+ lines, and the 71.4% under rate provides strong historical backing for this approach.
What's Aaron Gordon's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.4 three-pointers made on one day rest, falling 0.13 makes below the typical 0.53 line. This consistent gap between performance and expectations creates reliable under betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon three-point unders specifically on one day rest scenarios. His compressed role and energy allocation in back-to-back situations consistently produces lower three-point volume than books anticipate in their standard lines.