Aaron Gordon's three-point shooting at home presents a clear under opportunity, with the market consistently overvaluing his deep ball production. His 11-16-0 over/under record translates to just 40.7% overs, while his 0.56 average barely exceeds typical 0.5 lines. The under delivers +13.1% ROI versus -22.2% on overs.
Expert Analysis
The Aaron Gordon home three-point under represents a textbook case of market inefficiency driven by role perception versus reality. Despite averaging 0.56 made threes at home, Gordon's shooting profile reveals a player whose primary value comes from interior scoring, rebounding, and defensive versatility rather than perimeter shooting. His 40.7% over rate across 27 home games suggests the betting market consistently inflates expectations based on his athletic profile and occasional hot shooting nights. The +13.1% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable edge, as Gordon's role in Denver's offense prioritizes paint touches and transition opportunities over three-point volume. His home court advantage doesn't translate to improved shooting mechanics or increased attempts from deep. The consistency of this trend—with no dramatic splits suggesting situational variance—indicates this reflects Gordon's true shooting talent level rather than temporary variance. The market appears anchored to his occasional explosive shooting performances while ignoring his fundamental role as a complementary big who takes threes out of necessity rather than design. This creates recurring value on the under, particularly when lines sit at 0.5 or higher.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 13.1% ROI on unders combined with Gordon's 40.7% over rate creates legitimate value, though not overwhelming edge. Gordon's role-based limitations in three-point volume and accuracy make the under the preferred side, especially on standard 0.5 lines. Primary risk involves hot shooting variance or increased usage due to injuries, but his fundamental profile supports continued under performance at home.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Aaron Gordon's three pointers made prop record in home games stands at 11-16-0 over/under, meaning the over hits just 40.7% of the time across 27 games. This represents a significant edge for under bettors seeking consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Aaron Gordon's three pointers made in home games. His 40.7% over rate and +13.1% ROI on unders create clear value. His interior-focused role limits three-point volume, making the under the sharp side consistently.
What's Aaron Gordon's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.56 three pointers made in home games, barely exceeding the typical 0.5 line. This minimal differential of +0.02 creates tight margins that favor the under, especially considering his inconsistent shooting mechanics from deep.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon three-point unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher in home games. Avoid when Denver faces pace-up spots or Gordon shows recent hot shooting. Best value comes on standard lines during typical game scripts.