Aaron Gordon's three-point props present a compelling under opportunity with a dismal 31.5% over rate across 54 games. His 0.44 average sits 0.1 makes below the typical 0.52 line, generating a robust +30.8% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage at -39.9%.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's three-point struggles reflect his evolving role within Denver's offensive system, where he's transitioned into more of a complementary piece focused on cutting, screening, and finishing around the rim. The 0.44 average against a 0.52 line reveals consistent market overvaluation of his perimeter shooting. Gordon's career trajectory shows declining three-point volume as he's embraced a more versatile frontcourt role alongside Nikola Jokic. The 17-37 over-under record isn't fluky variance—it's structural. Gordon attempts just 1.4 threes per game, making the over a low-probability outcome requiring exceptional efficiency. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while the modest three-game over streak shows limited ceiling. The -39.9% ROI on overs indicates severe market inefficiency, likely driven by casual bettors overestimating his shooting based on name recognition rather than current usage patterns. Denver's pace and Gordon's role prioritize efficiency over volume, making unders the mathematically superior long-term play. The consistency of this underperformance across a full season sample suggests books haven't adequately adjusted lines to reflect his reduced three-point emphasis.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Gordon's 31.5% over rate and +30.8% under ROI create a sustainable edge that reflects his actual role rather than market perception. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, as his 0.44 average provides consistent value. The primary risk is variance in small samples, but the 54-game dataset proves this isn't regression-bound.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Aaron Gordon's three-point props show a 17-37-0 record (31.5% overs) across 54 games from October 2023 to April 2024. This translates to unders hitting at a 68.5% clip with strong consistency throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the under on Aaron Gordon's three-point props. His 31.5% over rate and +30.8% under ROI provide a clear mathematical edge. Focus on lines at 0.5 or higher where his 0.44 average creates the most value.
What's Aaron Gordon's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.44 three-pointers made per game, sitting 0.1 makes below the typical 0.52 line. This differential creates consistent value on unders, as he rarely exceeds market expectations for perimeter shooting volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon three-point unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 0.44 average and market expectations. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate attempts.