Aaron Gordon's steals prop shows a strong over bias with a 57.1% hit rate across 42 games, averaging 0.76 steals against a 0.5 line for a healthy +0.3 differential. The 9.1% ROI on overs combined with his current four-game over streak creates compelling value on the over side.
Expert Analysis
Gordon's steal production consistently exceeds market expectations due to his versatile defensive role in Denver's system. At 6'8" with excellent lateral mobility, Gordon often switches onto guards and wings, creating more steal opportunities than typical power forwards. His 0.76 average represents a 52% edge over the standard 0.5 line, indicating the market consistently undervalues his defensive activity level. The Nuggets' pace and defensive scheme encourage aggressive ball pressure, particularly when Gordon plays alongside Nikola Jokic, whose passing lanes coverage allows Gordon more freedom to gamble for steals. His current four-game over streak aligns with season-long trends rather than suggesting imminent regression. The 24-18 over record demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only four-game stretches as the longest under runs. Gordon's steal rate benefits from Denver's switching defense and his ability to guard multiple positions, creating mismatches where slower opponents struggle to protect the ball against his quick hands. The lack of significant under streaks suggests this isn't variance but rather a sustainable edge based on role and opportunity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gordon's 0.76 average creates substantial value against the 0.5 line, supported by his defensive versatility and Denver's system. The 57.1% over rate with positive ROI indicates consistent market mispricing. Primary risk involves potential rest games or blowouts limiting his defensive intensity, but his role-based steal opportunities make this a solid lean over play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Steals prop record all games?
Aaron Gordon has gone over his steals prop in 24 of 42 games (57.1%) with an 18-game under record. His season-long over rate demonstrates consistent value against the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Steals all games?
Lean over on Aaron Gordon's steals props. His 0.76 average significantly exceeds the 0.5 line, creating a 52% edge with positive ROI supporting continued over betting.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Steals all games?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.76 steals per game, which is 0.26 steals above the standard 0.5 line. This +52% differential represents one of the more reliable edges in NBA props.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when Gordon plays his normal minutes in competitive games. His defensive switching role creates consistent steal chances regardless of opponent, making most games viable betting spots.