Aaron Gordon's rebounds have been a consistent under play, hitting just 40% over rate across his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. Currently riding a three-game under streak, Gordon is averaging 6.2 rebounds against a 6.1 line. The under presents clear value.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's rebounding struggles stem from Denver's improved pace and his evolving role within their championship-caliber system. The 40% over rate masks a more telling story - Gordon is being squeezed out of rebounding opportunities by Nikola Jokic's dominant board presence and the team's emphasis on transition offense. When Denver plays at faster tempos, Gordon spends more possessions trailing plays rather than crashing glass. His 6.2 average barely eclipses the 6.1 line, but the consistency of unders suggests this isn't random variance. The three-game under streak coincides with Denver's playoff push, where rotations tighten and Gordon's defensive versatility keeps him away from the paint. Most concerning for over bettors is Gordon's role as a floor-spacer - he's positioning himself for kick-out threes rather than offensive rebounds. The -23.6% ROI on overs represents genuine market inefficiency, as casual bettors still view Gordon as the athletic rebounder from his Orlando days. His rebounding ceiling remains capped by team dynamics that prioritize ball movement over second chances, making the under a sustainable edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Aaron Gordon's rebounding props offer consistent under value due to Denver's pace-heavy system limiting his glass-crashing opportunities. The 60% under hit rate and positive 14.6% ROI create a clear edge, especially when the line sits at 6.1 or higher. Primary risk involves potential blowout scenarios where garbage time could inflate his numbers, but Denver's competitive schedule makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Gordon has gone over his rebounds prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), going under 6 times. He's averaging 6.2 rebounds against a typical 6.1 line, showing minimal edge for overs despite the slight positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet under on Aaron Gordon rebounds. The 60% under hit rate and positive 14.6% ROI on unders creates clear value, while overs show a brutal -23.6% ROI. His current three-game under streak supports continued fade of his rebounding props.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Aaron Gordon is averaging 6.2 rebounds over his last 10 games compared to a 6.1 line, creating just a +0.1 differential. This minimal edge combined with his 40% over rate makes the slight average advantage misleading for betting purposes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon under rebounds when Denver plays at faster pace or against teams that limit second-chance opportunities. Avoid betting his props in potential blowouts where garbage time could artificially inflate his rebounding numbers late in games.