Aaron Gordon's points prop presents a perfectly balanced puzzle with a 29-29 record hitting exactly 50.0% overs. His 13.33 average sits 0.6 points below the typical 13.93 line, creating a slight mathematical edge for unders despite the even split. The negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient pricing.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's points production reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency. Despite the perfectly even 29-29 over/under split, the underlying mathematics favor the under with Gordon averaging 13.33 points against a 13.93 line. This 0.6-point differential represents genuine value in a role-defined player whose scoring depends heavily on Denver's offensive flow and Nikola Jokic's playmaking. Gordon's tertiary scoring role behind Jokic and Jamal Murray creates natural variance - he'll explode for 20+ in games where Denver needs his athleticism, but frequently settles into the 10-12 range when the offense runs smoothly through their primary options. The current two-game under streak aligns with his historical pattern of longer under runs (four games) compared to over streaks (three games). His scoring ceiling remains limited by shot attempts rather than efficiency, making him vulnerable to game script and pace variations. The negative ROI on both sides indicates sharp line-setting, but the consistent under-performance versus the number suggests books may be slightly overvaluing his scoring in this complementary role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.6-point average deficit versus the typical line provides mathematical value despite the even record split. Gordon's role as Denver's third option creates natural scoring limitations, and his tendency toward longer under streaks (four games versus three over) supports this lean. Primary risk comes from pace-up games where his transition scoring spikes significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 5.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 14.5 | 23.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Points prop record all games?
Aaron Gordon has gone over his points prop in exactly 29 of 58 games (50.0%) with 29 unders, creating a perfectly balanced record. However, his 13.33 scoring average trails the typical 13.93 line by 0.6 points.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Points all games?
Lean under on Aaron Gordon's points props. His 13.33 average sits 0.6 points below the typical 13.93 line, and his complementary role in Denver's offense naturally limits scoring opportunities behind Jokic and Murray.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Points all games?
Aaron Gordon averages 13.33 points per game across 58 games, which falls 0.6 points short of his typical 13.93 line. This consistent under-performance versus the number suggests mathematical value on the under despite the even record.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon under props in games with normal pace and when Denver's primary scorers are healthy. His scoring ceiling gets capped in efficient offensive games, making slower-paced matchups ideal for under bets.