Aaron Gordon's blocks prop on one day rest presents a compelling under opportunity with just 27.6% overs hitting across 29 games. Gordon averages 0.41 blocks compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.1 differential that has generated +38.2% ROI betting unders.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's defensive impact diminishes significantly on limited rest, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. The 8-21 over/under split isn't random variance—it reflects how fatigue affects his defensive positioning and timing on help defense. Gordon's role as Denver's primary help defender requires exceptional court awareness and quick reactions, both of which suffer when he's playing back-to-back or near back-to-back scenarios. The 0.41 blocks average represents a meaningful 18% drop from the standard 0.5 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for this rest-related decline. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates the consistency of this pattern, while the current two-game over streak appears more like temporary variance than trend reversal. The -47.3% ROI on overs confirms this isn't a pricing inefficiency but a legitimate performance gap. Gordon's defensive responsibilities in Denver's system become more reactive than proactive when fatigued, leading to fewer opportunistic blocks. This trend shows remarkable persistence across different opponents and game situations, indicating it's driven by physical limitations rather than matchup-specific factors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 72.4% under rate and +38.2% ROI create a solid edge, though not overwhelming enough for high conviction. Gordon's 0.41 average sits comfortably below most 0.5 lines, providing natural cushion. The main risk is his current two-game over streak potentially indicating improved conditioning or role adjustment, but the sample size strongly favors continued under performance on limited rest.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon's blocks prop record on one day rest is 8-21-0 over/under, hitting the over just 27.6% of the time across 29 games from November 2023 to April 2024, making it a strong under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet under on Aaron Gordon's blocks prop when he has one day rest. The 72.4% under rate and +38.2% ROI provide a clear edge, especially with his 0.41 average sitting below most 0.5 lines.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.41 blocks on one day rest, which is 0.1 blocks below the typical 0.5 line. This -0.1 differential represents an 18% reduction from the standard betting threshold.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Aaron Gordon's blocks props is when he has one day rest, particularly on under bets. This specific rest situation has produced the most consistent and profitable pattern in his defensive statistics.