Aaron Gordon's blocks prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 30.2% overs across 43 games and a -0.08 differential versus the 0.5 line. The under's +33.2% ROI contrasts sharply with the over's brutal -42.3% loss rate, creating a clear statistical edge.
Expert Analysis
Gordon's blocks production reveals a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. His 0.42 average against the standard 0.5 line represents consistent underperformance driven by Denver's defensive system and his role within it. The Nuggets deploy Gordon primarily as a help defender and rebounder rather than a rim protector, limiting his block opportunities compared to traditional power forwards. His 13-30-0 record demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach the modest 0.5 threshold, suggesting this isn't random variance but a structural limitation. The longest under streak of 7 games indicates extended periods where Gordon simply doesn't generate block opportunities, likely correlating with matchups against perimeter-oriented opponents or when Denver's defensive scheme emphasizes switching over help defense. The under's strong ROI reflects sharp money recognizing this disconnect, while recreational bettors continue backing the over based on Gordon's athletic profile rather than his actual usage patterns. This trend appears sustainable given Gordon's defined role in Denver's championship-caliber system, where his value comes from versatility and rebounding rather than shot-blocking.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gordon's 0.42 average creates consistent value against the 0.5 line, supported by a 70% under rate and positive ROI. The structural factors driving this trend remain intact within Denver's defensive system. Primary risk involves occasional spike games against interior-heavy opponents, but the data suggests these are outliers rather than trend-breakers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Blocks prop record all games?
Gordon's blocks prop record shows 13 overs and 30 unders across 43 games, translating to just 30.2% overs. He's currently on a 1-game under streak with his longest under streak reaching 7 games this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Blocks all games?
Bet the under on Gordon's blocks props. His 0.42 average consistently falls short of the 0.5 line, producing a 70% under rate and +33.2% ROI. The structural factors driving this trend remain intact.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Blocks all games?
Gordon averages 0.42 blocks per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.08 differential. This consistent underperformance versus market expectations has produced value for under bettors throughout the season with strong ROI numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gordon's blocks under against perimeter-heavy opponents when Denver emphasizes switching defense over help coverage. Avoid when facing interior-dominant teams that could create more rim protection opportunities and spike his block numbers unexpectedly.