Aaron Gordon's assists prop at home presents a fascinating dichotomy - he's averaging 3.82 assists versus a 2.93 line (+0.9 differential), yet hitting overs at exactly 50% (14-14-0). The market appears to be undervaluing his home playmaking despite consistent production above the number.
Expert Analysis
The Aaron Gordon assists puzzle centers on Denver's offensive ecosystem at Ball Arena, where his role as a secondary facilitator becomes more pronounced. That 3.82 average against a 2.93 line represents a substantial 30% cushion, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to Gordon's evolved playmaking responsibilities in Denver's half-court sets. His assists production at home likely benefits from familiar sight lines, consistent rotations, and the comfort of playing in front of supportive crowds that energize ball movement. The concerning element is that 50% over rate despite the favorable average - this suggests either variance working against the numbers or situational factors (opponent pace, blowout games, Jokic's health) creating inconsistency. The longest under streak of six games indicates Gordon can go cold for extended periods, possibly when Denver's offense flows primarily through Jokic or when facing teams that limit secondary assists. However, the current one-game over streak and that persistent +0.9 differential indicate the underlying conditions favor continued production. The -4.5% ROI on both sides reflects efficient market pricing, but that average differential suggests long-term value exists if you can identify the right spots.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.9 differential between Gordon's 3.82 home average and the 2.93 line creates inherent value despite the neutral 50% hit rate. Target games against faster-paced opponents or when Denver's likely to play with leads, forcing more ball movement through secondary options. Main risk is Gordon's documented cold streaks and Denver's Jokic-centric offense limiting opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Assists prop record home games?
Aaron Gordon is 14-14-0 over/under on assists props in home games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He averages 3.82 assists per home game against typical lines around 2.93, creating a +0.9 differential that suggests consistent value despite the neutral record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Assists home games?
Lean over on Gordon's assists at home. His 3.82 average versus 2.93 lines creates nearly a full assist of value. Target games against uptempo opponents or when Denver projects to control pace, as Gordon's secondary playmaking thrives in structured offensive sets.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Assists home games?
Gordon averages 3.82 assists in home games compared to typical lines of 2.93, creating a +0.9 differential. This 30% cushion above the betting number indicates the market may be undervaluing his evolved playmaking role within Denver's offensive system at Ball Arena.
How reliable is this trend?
Best spots are home games against faster-paced teams or when Denver's projected to play with leads. Gordon's assists spike when the offense runs through multiple creators rather than just Jokic, particularly in comfortable home environments where ball movement increases.