The data suggests caution when backing the Phoenix Suns in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Phoenix Suns are just 22-27-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record22-27-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size49 games
ROI-14.3%
Units Won-7.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-3-00.0%-52.3%
20154-3-00.0%+9.1%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20172-2-00.0%-4.5%
20182-3-00.0%-23.6%
20196-1-00.0%+63.6%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20212-2-00.0%-4.5%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%
20233-2-00.0%+14.6%
20241-5-00.0%-68.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Suns' struggles as home favorites after losses stem from a franchise-wide pattern of inconsistent emotional responses and leadership voids that have plagued the organization for most of the past decade. Phoenix has historically lacked the veteran presence needed to bounce back effectively from disappointing defeats, often compounding mistakes rather than making necessary adjustments. The team's young core has frequently shown a tendency to press when expectations are highest, leading to rushed offensive possessions and defensive lapses that sharp oddsmakers have learned to exploit. Phoenix's home court advantage has been surprisingly minimal during these bounce-back spots, as the pressure of being favored after a loss seems to amplify their natural tendency toward inconsistency. The franchise's coaching turnover and roster instability have created an environment where players struggle to maintain confidence when adversity strikes, particularly in situations where they're expected to dominate lesser opponents. The most actionable insight for bettors is to target Phoenix's opponents in these spots when the Suns are laying significant points, as the combination of inflated lines and emotional fragility creates consistent value on the underdog side. This trend matters most when Phoenix is coming off road losses and facing teams with strong veteran leadership or playoff experience.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Phoenix Suns's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Phoenix Suns have a 22-27-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 44.9% ATS win rate over 49 games.

Is betting on the Phoenix Suns as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Phoenix Suns as home favorites after a loss is not profitable. The strategy shows a -14.3% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the typical league average for home favorites, which generally covers around 48-52% of the time. The Suns' 44.9% ATS rate in this situation represents poor value for bettors.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.