Orlando Magic Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Orlando Magic in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Orlando Magic are just 13-14-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.1%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2020 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2021 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2022 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Magic's struggles as small favorites reflect a young team's inconsistent approach to games they're expected to control. When Orlando enters as slight favorites, they often face opponents with nothing to lose who play with desperation while the Magic can fall into the trap of expecting victory rather than executing their game plan. This psychological dynamic particularly hurts a roster still learning how to close out winnable games. Orlando's offensive limitations become magnified in these spots. As small favorites, they're typically facing teams with comparable talent levels, which means their below-average halfcourt offense can't simply overwhelm opponents through superior skill. The Magic rely heavily on transition opportunities and defensive stops to generate easy scoring, but when games tighten up in crucial moments, their lack of reliable shot creators becomes problematic. The franchise's recent improvement suggests they're beginning to handle these situations better, but their developmental stage means consistency remains elusive. Young players often struggle with the mental aspect of being favored, leading to lackluster starts or fourth-quarter collapses against motivated underdogs. This trend matters most when Orlando faces teams with strong veteran leadership or clubs playing with playoff implications on the line, as these opponents typically bring the intensity needed to exploit the Magic's mental approach.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Orlando Magic's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?
The Orlando Magic has a 13-14-0 ATS record when favored by 1 to 3 points from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.1% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Orlando Magic as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?
No, betting on the Orlando Magic as small favorites (-1 to -3) is not profitable, showing a -8.1% ROI over this period. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Magic in these spots.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Magic's 48.1% ATS win rate as small favorites is below the typical league average of around 50% for ATS performance. Their negative ROI indicates they've been poor value bets in this role.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.