The data suggests caution when backing the Orlando Magic in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7), the Orlando Magic are just 28-49-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -30.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +30.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record28-49-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size77 games
ROI-30.6%
Units Won-23.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-3-00.0%-23.6%
20154-5-00.0%-15.2%
20161-5-00.0%-68.2%
20173-4-00.0%-18.2%
20182-4-00.0%-36.4%
20194-5-00.0%-15.2%
20200-3-00.0%-100.0%
20216-8-00.0%-18.2%
20223-4-00.0%-18.2%
20231-6-00.0%-72.7%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Magic's struggles as medium favorites stem from a franchise caught between rebuilding phases and premature expectations. When Vegas installs Orlando as a 3.5 to 7-point favorite, it's typically against teams they should handle comfortably, but the Magic consistently lack the killer instinct to put away inferior opponents. Their young core, while talented, hasn't developed the mental toughness to maintain focus against supposedly weaker competition. This pattern reflects Orlando's inconsistent offensive execution in games where they're expected to control tempo. The Magic often play down to their competition's level, allowing scrappy underdogs to hang around through poor shot selection and defensive lapses. Their recent uptick suggests some maturation, but the sample remains too small to indicate a genuine shift in approach. The psychological burden of being favored appears to weigh heavily on a team still learning how to win consistently. Orlando's coaching staff has struggled to instill the professional mindset needed to handle business against teams they should beat. This trend matters most when the Magic face sub-.500 teams at home during non-nationally televised games, where the spotlight is minimal and complacency becomes their biggest enemy.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Orlando Magic's ATS record as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7)?

The Orlando Magic has a 28-49-0 ATS record as medium favorites (-3.5 to -7 point spreads) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 36.4% cover rate over 77 games in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Orlando Magic as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7) profitable?

No, betting on the Orlando Magic as medium favorites has been unprofitable with a -30.6% ROI. The team has failed to cover the spread in this situation 64% of the time over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Magic's 36.4% cover rate as medium favorites represents one of the worst trends in this betting category.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.