The data suggests caution when backing the Orlando Magic in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Orlando Magic are just 21-29-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -19.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +19.8%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record21-29-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size50 games
ROI-19.8%
Units Won-9.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-3-00.0%-23.6%
20153-0-00.0%+90.9%
20162-5-00.0%-45.5%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20183-2-00.0%+14.6%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20215-4-00.0%+6.1%
20222-4-00.0%-36.4%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20241-4-00.0%-61.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Magic's struggles as home favorites after losses stem from a franchise-wide identity crisis that has persisted through multiple rebuilds. Orlando has historically lacked the veteran leadership and mental fortitude necessary to respond effectively to adversity, particularly when expectations are elevated at home. Young rosters tend to press when facing the pressure of being favored, especially after disappointing performances that likely drew criticism from fans and media. The psychological burden becomes amplified at Amway Center, where the Magic have rarely established true home-court dominance during their rebuilding years. When coming off losses, this team has consistently shown a pattern of overthinking rather than playing instinctively, leading to hesitant offensive execution and defensive breakdowns against motivated underdogs. The franchise's coaching instability during much of this period has also contributed to inconsistent game-planning and preparation after setbacks. The most telling aspect is how Orlando tends to underestimate opponents when installed as favorites, particularly teams with nothing to lose. Road underdogs often play with desperation against a Magic team that hasn't learned how to close games with authority. This trend carries the most weight when Orlando faces sub-.500 teams after home losses, where the line movement typically favors the visiting underdog.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Orlando Magic's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Orlando Magic has gone 21-29-0 against the spread as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 42% ATS win rate over 50 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Orlando Magic as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Orlando Magic as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable. This trend shows a -19.8% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost nearly 20% of their investment over this 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as teams typically cover the spread around 50% of the time. The Magic's 42% ATS rate in this spot indicates they consistently struggle to meet expectations when favored at home following a loss.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.