Oklahoma City Thunder Home vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Oklahoma City Thunder are just 13-14-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.1%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2018 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2024 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Thunder's mediocre home performance against divisional rivals stems from the intense familiarity these teams develop through multiple meetings each season. Division opponents scout Oklahoma City's tendencies more thoroughly, particularly their reliance on isolation plays and transition offense. When facing teams like Denver, Portland, or Minnesota at home, the Thunder often fall into predictable patterns that these well-prepared opponents can exploit. Oklahoma City's young core tends to press in these high-stakes divisional matchups, especially at home where fan expectations run highest. The Thunder's offensive system, built around creating advantages through pace and athleticism, becomes less effective when division rivals implement specific defensive schemes designed to slow their tempo. These teams know exactly how to disrupt Oklahoma City's preferred rhythm, leading to closer-than-expected games that frequently fall short of inflated home spreads. The psychological pressure of protecting home court against familiar foes creates additional tension. Division games carry playoff implications, and the Thunder's inexperienced roster sometimes struggles with the weight of these moments. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing Oklahoma City at home against division rivals during the season's final two months, when these matchups carry maximum intensity and every possession matters for playoff positioning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Oklahoma City Thunder's ATS record as home vs division rival?
The Oklahoma City Thunder has a 13-14-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.1% ATS win rate over 27 games.
Is betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as home vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home vs division rivals has not been profitable. The -8.1% ROI indicates bettors would have lost money consistently backing OKC in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is below the theoretical 50% break-even point for ATS betting. The 48.1% win rate and negative ROI suggest the Thunder consistently fails to cover spreads in home division rivalry games.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.