The data suggests caution when backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Oklahoma City Thunder are just 12-16-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -18.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +18.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record12-16-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size28 games
ROI-18.2%
Units Won-5.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20153-3-00.0%-4.5%
20161-2-00.0%-36.4%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20191-2-00.0%-36.4%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20210-2-00.0%-100.0%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20243-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Thunder's struggles against division rivals on the road stem from the unique intensity and familiarity that defines Northwest Division matchups. Playing against teams like Denver, Portland, Minnesota, and Utah creates a perfect storm of heightened motivation from opponents who know Oklahoma City's tendencies intimately. These divisional foes have extensive scouting reports and understand how to exploit the Thunder's weaknesses, particularly their tendency to rely heavily on individual talent rather than systematic execution in hostile environments. Oklahoma City's young core, while talented, often struggles with the emotional weight of divisional games where every possession feels magnified. The Thunder's fast-paced offensive system that thrives at home becomes more predictable and easier to defend when opponents have seen it multiple times per season. Road environments amplify these challenges, as the Thunder's role players tend to disappear in crucial moments against teams that know exactly how to pressure them. For bettors, the key insight is recognizing when Oklahoma City faces a division rival coming off a loss or in a must-win scenario. These opponents bring extra desperation that the young Thunder roster hasn't consistently learned to match. This trend matters most during the final month of the regular season when playoff positioning intensifies divisional rivalries.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Oklahoma City Thunder's ATS record as away vs division rival?

The Oklahoma City Thunder has a 12-16-0 ATS record when playing away games against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 42.9% ATS win rate over 28 games.

Is betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as away vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as away vs division rivals has not been profitable. The trend shows a -18.2% ROI with a 0% win rate, indicating consistent losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average of approximately 50% ATS. The Thunder's 42.9% ATS rate in this specific situation represents underperformance against the spread in divisional road games.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.