New Orleans Pelicans Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the New Orleans Pelicans in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the New Orleans Pelicans are just 20-25-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -15.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +15.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2015 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2016 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2017 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2018 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2019 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2020 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2021 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2022 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Pelicans' struggles as small underdogs stem from their franchise's perpetual identity crisis and inconsistent roster construction. New Orleans has historically been caught between rebuilding phases and playoff pushes, creating a team that lacks the mental fortitude to capitalize when oddsmakers give them legitimate chances to win. When set as slight underdogs, the Pelicans often face teams they should theoretically compete with, yet their inconsistent effort levels and poor late-game execution repeatedly cost them covers. The psychological aspect cannot be ignored - this franchise has conditioned itself to underperform in winnable spots. Whether it was the Anthony Davis era's playoff disappointments or the current Zion Williamson injury concerns, New Orleans carries baggage that manifests in tight games. Their coaching changes and front office turnover have created an organizational culture that struggles with accountability when the pressure is manageable rather than overwhelming. Smart bettors should fade New Orleans as small underdogs, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds contempt and the Pelicans' talent advantage gets neutralized by superior game planning from opponents. This trend becomes most critical during the season's middle months when playoff positioning creates additional pressure but the games haven't reached desperation mode yet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New Orleans Pelicans's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The New Orleans Pelicans have a 20-25-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 44.4% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the New Orleans Pelicans as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
No, betting on the Pelicans as small underdogs has not been profitable, showing a -15.2% ROI. This indicates consistent losses for bettors backing New Orleans in these close spread situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Pelicans' 44.4% ATS win rate as small underdogs is below the typical league average of around 50%. Their -15.2% ROI significantly underperforms compared to the expected break-even point for sports betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.