New Orleans Pelicans Home Underdog After a Win Betting Trend

The Pelicans' struggles as home underdogs following victories stem from a dangerous combination of overconfidence and market inefficiency. New Orleans has historically been a franchise caught between competitive windows, often fielding talented rosters that create inflated expectations after wins. When they return home as underdogs despite recent success, it typically signals the betting market recognizes underlying weaknesses that fans and the team itself may overlook. This pattern reflects New Orleans' tendency toward inconsistent effort and preparation following positive results. The franchise has cycled through multiple coaching philosophies and roster constructions since 2014, but the common thread remains players who struggle with emotional regulation game-to-game. Playing at home after a win creates a perfect storm where the team expects easier results while facing opponents motivated by their underdog status. The negative ROI suggests the market has consistently undervalued visiting teams in these spots, likely influenced by recency bias from the Pelicans' previous victory. Sharp bettors should consider fading New Orleans when they return home as underdogs after wins, particularly against well-coached visiting teams. This trend carries the most weight when the Pelicans are coming off impressive road victories or wins against quality opponents, as these scenarios amplify the overconfidence factor.