Minnesota Timberwolves Home - Second of Back-to-Back Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Minnesota Timberwolves in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home - second of back-to-back, the Minnesota Timberwolves are just 11-15-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -19.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +19.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2022 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2024 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Timberwolves' struggles as home favorites on the second night of back-to-backs stem from their historically young roster construction and energy-dependent playing style. Minnesota has consistently relied on athleticism and defensive intensity under various coaching regimes, but these attributes naturally diminish when legs are heavy from travel and a previous night's battle. The franchise's tendency to play up or down to competition levels becomes particularly problematic when oddsmakers expect them to cover spreads against inferior opponents on tired legs. Minnesota's home court advantage at Target Center has never been among the league's most intimidating, and when combined with the physical toll of consecutive games, their ability to impose their will defensively deteriorates significantly. The team's offensive inconsistency, a recurring theme throughout different eras of Timberwolves basketball, becomes magnified when rhythm and timing are affected by fatigue. The recent uptick in performance suggests improved conditioning and depth, but bettors should remain cautious when Minnesota is laying points at home on zero days rest. This trend carries the most weight when the Timberwolves are favored by more than five points against teams with losing records, as the combination of overconfidence and physical limitations creates the perfect storm for disappointing covers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Minnesota Timberwolves's ATS record as home - second of back-to-back?
The Minnesota Timberwolves have an 11-15-0 ATS record when playing at home on the second night of back-to-back games from 2014-2024. This translates to a 42.3% ATS win rate over 26 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Minnesota Timberwolves as home - second of back-to-back profitable?
No, betting on the Timberwolves in this situation is not profitable, with a -19.2% ROI. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing Minnesota at home on the second night of back-to-backs.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below the expected 50% ATS baseline, indicating the Timberwolves struggle more than average teams in this scheduling situation. The negative ROI suggests sportsbooks have not adequately adjusted their lines to account for Minnesota's poor performance in this spot.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.