The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks are just 110-116-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.1%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record110-116-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size226 games
ROI-7.1%
Units Won-16.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201410-9-00.0%+0.5%
201514-10-00.0%+11.4%
20169-10-00.0%-9.6%
20176-8-00.0%-18.2%
201812-10-00.0%+4.1%
20198-12-00.0%-23.6%
202010-10-00.0%-4.5%
20217-14-00.0%-36.4%
202212-7-00.0%+20.6%
20238-12-00.0%-23.6%
202414-14-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bucks' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from their methodical, half-court offensive system that relies heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo's paint dominance and three-point shooting. Against unfamiliar Western Conference teams they face only twice per season, Milwaukee often encounters defensive schemes specifically designed to neutralize their star forward, forcing role players into uncomfortable situations without the benefit of regular season adjustments. Milwaukee's coaching staff historically emphasizes divisional and conference matchups during preparation, treating non-conference games as lower-priority contests where they experiment with rotations and rest key players. This approach becomes particularly problematic when facing Western Conference teams with contrasting playing styles - the faster pace and perimeter-oriented attacks common in the West expose Milwaukee's sometimes sluggish defensive transitions and over-reliance on rim protection. The franchise's recent championship window mentality has created a regular season complacency against teams they won't face in the playoffs, leading to inconsistent effort levels and poor line value. Bettors should target Milwaukee as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents, particularly in back-to-back situations or when facing teams with strong perimeter shooting. This trend carries the most weight during the regular season's middle months when playoff seeding isn't yet critical and Milwaukee's focus wavers against unfamiliar opposition.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?

The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 110-116-0 against the spread when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.7% ATS win rate over 226 total games.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as vs non-conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -7.1% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing Milwaukee in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bucks' 48.7% ATS win rate against non-conference teams is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point. This underperformance against the spread suggests they may be overvalued by oddsmakers in these specific matchups.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.