The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Milwaukee Bucks are just 19-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record19-22-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size41 games
ROI-11.5%
Units Won-4.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-4-00.0%-61.8%
20151-0-00.0%+90.9%
20163-3-00.0%-4.5%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20201-3-00.0%-52.3%
20211-3-00.0%-52.3%
20222-0-00.0%+90.9%
20234-1-00.0%+52.7%
20243-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bucks' struggles as small underdogs stem from their championship-caliber roster creating inflated expectations that don't match the betting market's assessment. When Milwaukee enters games as slight underdogs, it typically signals they're facing elite competition on the road or dealing with key player absences. The psychological dynamic becomes problematic because this team, built around Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominance, often approaches these contests expecting to impose their will rather than executing the disciplined, methodical game plan required against superior opponents. Milwaukee's offensive system relies heavily on Giannis driving to the rim and Damian Lillard creating shots, but against top-tier defenses that force them into small underdog status, these strengths become predictable. Elite teams can pack the paint against Giannis while pressuring Lillard on the perimeter, exposing the Bucks' lack of consistent secondary scoring options and defensive versatility. The recent hot streak suggests potential system improvements, but bettors should remain cautious when backing Milwaukee as small underdogs against teams with elite defensive ratings. This trend matters most during playoff positioning battles in March and April, when every possession carries heightened importance and opponents game-plan specifically to neutralize the Bucks' star power.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?

The Milwaukee Bucks have a 19-22-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.3% cover rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as small underdogs (+1 to +3) is not profitable, with a -11.5% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents consistent losses for bettors backing Milwaukee in these spots.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bucks' 46.3% ATS win rate as small underdogs is below the typical 50% break-even threshold expected in spread betting. Their -11.5% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than average in this situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.