The public often underestimates the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Milwaukee Bucks hold a record of 55-37-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +14.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $13 over this period.

✅ Profitable
Record55-37-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size92 games
ROI+14.1%
Units Won+13.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-3-00.0%+9.1%
20159-4-00.0%+32.2%
20168-3-00.0%+38.8%
20172-3-00.0%-23.6%
20187-1-00.0%+67.0%
20193-5-00.0%-28.4%
20204-3-00.0%+9.1%
20212-2-00.0%-4.5%
20224-5-00.0%-15.2%
20237-3-00.0%+33.6%
20245-5-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Milwaukee Bucks' strong performance as large underdogs stems from their unique organizational culture and talent level that rarely justifies such massive spreads. When oddsmakers set the Bucks at 7.5+ points behind, it typically occurs during injury-plagued stretches or against elite opponents on the road, creating artificial value gaps that sharp bettors exploit. Milwaukee's core identity revolves around Giannis Antetokounmpo's ability to single-handedly shift game dynamics, even when supporting pieces are compromised. The team's defensive versatility allows them to stay competitive against superior opponents by forcing turnovers and creating transition opportunities that neutralize talent disparities. Their three-point shooting variance also works in their favor as underdogs - when shots fall, they can quickly erase large deficits against better teams. The psychological element proves crucial here. Large underdog spots often coincide with nationally televised games or playoff-atmosphere environments where role players elevate their performance. Milwaukee's veteran leadership and championship experience prevent the team from folding under pressure, keeping games closer than the spread suggests. This trend carries most weight during the regular season when motivation levels vary and the Bucks face top-tier Western Conference opponents on extended road trips.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Milwaukee Bucks have an ATS record of 55-37-0 when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 59.8% ATS win rate over 92 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as large underdogs (+7.5+) has been profitable with a 14.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite never winning games outright in this situation (0.0% win rate), they consistently cover the spread at a high rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bucks' 59.8% ATS win rate as large underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for ATS betting. Their 14.1% ROI indicates exceptional value when getting 7.5+ points.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.