The public often underestimates the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Milwaukee Bucks hold a record of 27-21-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +7.4% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $4 over this period.

✅ Profitable
Record27-21-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size48 games
ROI+7.4%
Units Won+3.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-2-00.0%-4.5%
20154-1-00.0%+52.7%
20162-1-00.0%+27.3%
20172-1-00.0%+27.3%
20185-2-00.0%+36.4%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20210-3-00.0%-100.0%
20220-4-00.0%-100.0%
20234-1-00.0%+52.7%
20245-2-00.0%+36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bucks' success as home underdogs following victories stems from a dangerous combination of wounded pride and championship-caliber talent being disrespected by oddsmakers. When Milwaukee enters Fiserv Forum as an underdog after a win, they're typically facing elite competition during stretches where their recent form doesn't match their underlying capabilities. This creates a perfect storm where a team accustomed to being favored channels frustration into dominant home performances. Milwaukee's core identity revolves around Giannis Antetokounmpo's relentless motor and the team's defensive switching schemes that become particularly effective in familiar surroundings. After wins, the team maintains positive momentum while simultaneously carrying the chip-on-shoulder mentality that comes with underdog status. The Bucks have historically thrived when external expectations don't align with their internal confidence, particularly at home where their defensive rotations and transition offense become magnified. The psychological edge becomes even sharper when oddsmakers essentially suggest that despite just winning, Milwaukee still can't be trusted against quality opponents. This disrespect often correlates with scheduling spots where the market overvalues the opponent's recent form or underestimates the Bucks' ability to elevate their play. This trend carries the most weight when Milwaukee faces playoff-caliber opponents in nationally televised games, where pride and statement-making opportunities converge.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Milwaukee Bucks have a 27-21-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 56.3% ATS win rate over 48 games in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as home underdogs after a win has been profitable with a 7.4% ROI from 2014-2024. Their 56.3% ATS success rate in this situation exceeds the breakeven point needed for profitability.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 56.3% ATS rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for ATS betting. The 7.4% ROI indicates the Bucks have provided strong value in this specific contrarian betting spot.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.