Milwaukee Bucks Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Milwaukee Bucks are just 15-32-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -39.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +39.1%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2015 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2016 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2018 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2019 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2021 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Bucks' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a combination of psychological fragility and tactical predictability that opposing teams exploit effectively. Milwaukee's star-driven offense, heavily reliant on Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominance, becomes more vulnerable on the road when confidence is already shaken from a previous defeat. The team's tendency to rely on individual brilliance rather than systematic execution gets exposed against motivated home underdogs who smell opportunity. Road environments amplify the mental burden of being favored after a loss, creating a dangerous cocktail of overconfidence and underlying doubt. The Bucks often enter these spots expecting their talent advantage to naturally overcome recent setbacks, but opposing coaches use the extra preparation time to devise specific schemes that neutralize Milwaukee's strengths. Teams facing the Bucks in this scenario typically play with house money mentality while Milwaukee carries the psychological weight of expectations. The pattern reveals itself most clearly when Milwaukee faces teams with strong home court advantages or defensive-minded clubs that can slow the pace and force half-court execution. Bettors should particularly target this fade when the Bucks are road chalk against teams coming off quality performances or in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds tactical advantages for the underdog.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Milwaukee Bucks have a 15-32-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 31.9% ATS win rate over 47 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. This betting strategy has produced a -39.1% ROI, meaning you would lose approximately 39 cents for every dollar wagered.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than typical league averages, which generally hover around 50% ATS. The Bucks' 31.9% ATS rate in this situation represents substantial underperformance compared to expected betting market efficiency.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.