The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Milwaukee Bucks are just 38-62-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -27.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +27.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record38-62-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size100 games
ROI-27.4%
Units Won-27.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-9-00.0%-52.3%
201510-4-00.0%+36.4%
20160-7-00.0%-100.0%
20175-4-00.0%+6.1%
20185-4-00.0%+6.1%
20193-5-00.0%-28.4%
20203-6-00.0%-36.4%
20211-9-00.0%-80.9%
20223-2-00.0%+14.6%
20233-5-00.0%-28.4%
20242-7-00.0%-57.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bucks' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual road identity. Milwaukee has historically been a team built around dominant home-court advantages, particularly during the Giannis Antetokounmpo era, where their aggressive defensive schemes and transition offense thrive in familiar surroundings. When oddsmakers install them as road chalk, they're often overvaluing this home dominance while underestimating how dramatically the team's effectiveness diminishes away from Fiserv Forum. Road favorites face unique psychological pressure - they're expected to impose their will in hostile environments while dealing with travel fatigue and unfamiliar shooting backgrounds. The Bucks' reliance on rhythm shooting from beyond the arc becomes particularly problematic on the road, where role players often struggle to find their stroke. Additionally, their defensive intensity, which anchors their success at home, frequently lacks the same bite in opposing arenas where crowd energy works against them. The market consistently overadjusts for Milwaukee's star power without properly accounting for their road vulnerabilities. Smart bettors should target Milwaukee road favorites when they're laying more than 4.5 points, especially in back-to-back situations or against teams with strong home records. This trend carries the most weight during regular season divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games regardless of talent disparities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as away favorite?

The Milwaukee Bucks have a 38-62-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in 38% of games. This represents 100 total games where Milwaukee was favored on the road.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as away favorites is not profitable, showing a -27.4% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This poor return indicates consistent underperformance against the spread in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 38% ATS win rate is significantly below the typical 50% expectation for spread betting. The -27.4% ROI indicates the Bucks perform much worse than league average when favored away from home.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.