The public often underestimates the Miami Heat in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home - second of back-to-back, the Miami Heat hold a record of 19-12-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +17.0% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $5 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record19-12-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size31 games
ROI+17.0%
Units Won+5.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-3-00.0%-4.5%
20153-0-00.0%+90.9%
20164-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20202-6-00.0%-52.3%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20222-0-00.0%+90.9%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Heat's strong performance as home favorites on the second night of back-to-backs stems from their organizational culture of conditioning and mental toughness that Pat Riley instilled decades ago. Miami's players are conditioned to embrace adversity, and the combination of playing at home with tired legs often creates a perfect storm where they lean on their defensive identity and crowd energy to overcome physical limitations. Erik Spoelstra's tactical adjustments shine in these spots, as he's masterful at shortening rotations and maximizing rest periods during games when his team is fatigued. The Heat also benefit from playing in a climate-controlled environment at home, which helps with recovery between games compared to traveling opponents who may be dealing with different weather conditions and unfamiliar surroundings. Miami's veteran leadership typically steps up in these grinding situations, with their experienced core understanding how to pace themselves and make winning plays when fresh legs aren't available. The team's "Heat Culture" philosophy actually thrives in adversity, as players often perform better when they feel they have something to prove against the odds. This trend matters most when Miami faces teams on equal rest or when they're getting points despite being the more rested squad at home.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Heat's ATS record as home - second of back-to-back?

The Miami Heat has a 19-12-0 ATS record when playing at home on the second game of back-to-back games from 2014-2024. This translates to a 61.3% ATS win rate over 31 games.

Is betting on the Miami Heat as home - second of back-to-back profitable?

Yes, betting on the Miami Heat in this situation has been profitable with a 17.0% ROI. Despite covering the spread at a strong rate, bettors would have seen positive returns over this 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 61.3% ATS rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for similar situations. The Heat have been particularly strong at home when playing tired, making them a valuable bet in back-to-back scenarios.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.