The data suggests caution when backing the Memphis Grizzlies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Memphis Grizzlies are just 22-38-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -30.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +30.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record22-38-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size60 games
ROI-30.0%
Units Won-18.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-6-00.0%-100.0%
20152-5-00.0%-45.5%
20160-4-00.0%-100.0%
20173-1-00.0%+43.2%
20182-1-00.0%+27.3%
20193-4-00.0%-18.2%
20204-1-00.0%+52.7%
20214-4-00.0%-4.5%
20221-5-00.0%-68.2%
20232-4-00.0%-36.4%
20241-3-00.0%-52.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Memphis Grizzlies' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and the team's psychological makeup. Memphis has historically been built around grit-and-grind mentality players who respond better to adversity than prosperity. When the betting market installs them as favorites at home after a defeat, it's essentially betting that this young, emotionally-driven roster will channel frustration into focused execution - something that contradicts their developmental nature. The franchise's identity crisis during rebuilding years compounds this issue. Young cores like Ja Morant's emerging squad often lack the veteran leadership necessary to compartmentalize losses and refocus immediately. Instead of using home court as a launching pad for bounce-back performances, the Grizzlies frequently carry emotional baggage from previous defeats, leading to pressing and forced plays that work against their natural rhythm. Memphis also tends to face more motivated opponents in these spots, as visiting teams recognize the Grizzlies' vulnerability after losses and attack with extra intensity. The combination of internal pressure and external motivation creates a perfect storm for underperformance. This trend carries the most significance when Memphis faces divisional opponents or teams fighting for playoff positioning, as these games amplify the emotional stakes that historically derail their focus.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Memphis Grizzlies's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Memphis Grizzlies have a 22-38-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 36.7% ATS win rate over 60 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Memphis Grizzlies as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Memphis Grizzlies as home favorites after a loss is not profitable. The strategy shows a -30.0% ROI with a 0% straight-up win rate, indicating consistent underperformance against expectations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS. The Grizzlies' 36.7% ATS rate in this spot represents a notable negative trend for bettors to avoid.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.