The data suggests caution when backing the Memphis Grizzlies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away underdog after a win, the Memphis Grizzlies are just 27-28-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record27-28-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size55 games
ROI-6.3%
Units Won-3.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-3-00.0%+27.3%
20152-2-00.0%-4.5%
20163-4-00.0%-18.2%
20171-6-00.0%-72.7%
20184-1-00.0%+52.7%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20214-3-00.0%+9.1%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20233-3-00.0%-4.5%
20241-3-00.0%-52.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Grizzlies' struggles as road underdogs following victories stem from their young core's inconsistent emotional regulation and tendency toward overconfidence. Memphis has built its identity around grit-and-grind basketball, but this mentality can work against them when they're already riding high from a recent win. The team often enters these spots believing they can impose their will regardless of venue or opponent strength, leading to poor shot selection and defensive lapses early in games. Memphis's youth-heavy roster, anchored by players like Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., naturally experiences the emotional swings that come with inexperience. After a confidence-boosting victory, they frequently underestimate superior opponents on the road, failing to match the intensity that made them successful in the previous game. The Grizzlies also tend to rely heavily on transition offense, which becomes less effective against prepared home teams that can control pace and limit fast-break opportunities. Their coaching staff has historically struggled to maintain the team's edge in these specific scenarios, often allowing players to coast on previous momentum rather than treating each game as an isolated event. This pattern becomes most problematic when Memphis faces playoff-caliber teams at home, where the combination of hostile environment and talent disparity exposes their mental preparation deficiencies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Memphis Grizzlies's ATS record as away underdog after a win?

The Memphis Grizzlies have a 27-28-0 ATS record as away underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 49.1% ATS win rate over 55 games.

Is betting on the Memphis Grizzlies as away underdog after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Memphis Grizzlies as away underdogs after a win is not profitable. The strategy shows a negative -6.3% ROI over the 10-year period from 2014-2024.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is slightly below the typical 50% expectation for ATS betting. The 49.1% win rate and -6.3% ROI indicates underperformance compared to break-even expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.