Los Angeles Lakers Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Lakers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Los Angeles Lakers are just 18-23-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -16.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +16.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2015 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2016 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2017 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2018 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2019 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2020 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 5-2-1 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2023 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Lakers' struggles as small favorites reflect a franchise caught between championship expectations and roster limitations. When installed as narrow favorites, Los Angeles often faces the psychological burden of being expected to win while lacking the depth or consistency to meet those expectations reliably. This creates a perfect storm where opponents arrive motivated to knock off a marquee franchise, while the Lakers themselves may approach games with less urgency than required. The team's star-heavy construction compounds this issue. When LeBron James or Anthony Davis face minor injuries or rest games, the supporting cast frequently cannot bridge the gap against motivated underdogs. Additionally, the Lakers' defensive inconsistencies become magnified in close-spread situations where every possession matters. Their tendency to play down to competition level has been a recurring theme throughout different roster iterations. The recent 5-5 form in this spot suggests some improvement, but the historical pattern remains concerning. Bettors should be particularly wary of backing the Lakers as small favorites when facing teams with strong recent form or those playing with nothing to lose. This trend matters most during the regular season when motivation levels fluctuate and the Lakers are most likely to overlook supposedly inferior opponents.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Los Angeles Lakers's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?
The Los Angeles Lakers have an 18-23-1 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3 points) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.9% cover rate over 42 games in this spot.
Is betting on the Los Angeles Lakers as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?
No, betting on the Lakers as small favorites has not been profitable, showing a -16.2% ROI over the past decade. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing LA in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below the expected 50% break-even rate for ATS betting. The Lakers' 43.9% cover rate as small favorites suggests they consistently fail to meet modest expectations in close games.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.