The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Lakers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Los Angeles Lakers are just 33-60-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -32.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +32.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record33-60-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size93 games
ROI-32.3%
Units Won-30.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-8-00.0%-26.6%
20153-5-00.0%-28.4%
20162-3-00.0%-23.6%
20173-5-00.0%-28.4%
20180-7-00.0%-100.0%
20193-5-00.0%-28.4%
20202-7-00.0%-57.6%
20211-7-00.0%-76.1%
20226-3-00.0%+27.3%
20234-6-00.0%-23.6%
20244-4-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Lakers' struggles as heavy favorites stem from a franchise culture that has historically thrived on big-game energy and championship-level motivation. When laying significant points, Los Angeles often faces the challenge of maintaining intensity against inferior opponents, particularly during regular season stretches where individual games carry less psychological weight. This dynamic becomes amplified when star players like LeBron James or Anthony Davis view certain matchups as opportunities for load management or reduced effort, creating a disconnect between the team's talent level and their actual performance output. The franchise's championship-or-bust mentality also works against them in these spots. Role players and bench contributors who excel in playoff atmospheres often struggle to replicate that same energy when the Lakers are expected to dominate lesser competition. The team's reliance on veteran leadership can become a liability when facing younger, hungrier opponents who view games against Los Angeles as statement opportunities. Smart bettors should consider fading the Lakers as large favorites when they're coming off emotional wins or losses, as the team frequently experiences letdown spots. This trend matters most during mid-season stretches in January and February when playoff positioning isn't yet critical, and against teams fighting for their postseason lives.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Los Angeles Lakers's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?

The Los Angeles Lakers have an ATS record of 33-60-0 (35.5%) when favored by 7.5+ points from 2014-2024. They have failed to cover the spread in nearly two-thirds of these games as large favorites.

Is betting on the Los Angeles Lakers as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?

No, betting on the Lakers as large favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -32.3% ROI over this period. This represents significant losses for bettors backing Los Angeles in these spots.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Lakers' 35.5% cover rate as large favorites indicates they consistently underperform expectations in these situations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.